Fossil fuel combustion needs to be substantially reduced for three main reasons; energy security, human health and climate change mitigation.

Energy security has become a priority as the World's population increases and their standard of living improves thus increasing energy consumption. The finite nature of fossil fuel reserves and the political instability of many of the countries which supply fossil fuels have caused concern over future energy security and costs. The likely result of fossil fuel scarcity is that, as the cost of these commodities increases, they will only be affordable for large industrial processes and therefore cheaper renewable sources must be found for domestic purposes.

Air pollution (mainly particulates) produced through the combustion fossil fuels threatens human health, the World Health Organisation (2000) estimated that globally, 3 million people die each year due to air pollution (5% of total annual deaths), air pollution is responsible to 30-40% of asthma cases and that global air pollution significantly reduces life expectancy.

Combustion of fossil fuels releases carbon dioxide and other so-called “greenhouse gases” into the atmosphere. These gases have been demonstrated to increase fluctuations in global temperature and to be responsible for the accelerated global climate change we are currently experiencing.

At a recent conference, Sir John Houghton, the chairman of the Scientific Assessment Group of the IPCC gave the following climate change information.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) pre-1800, to 380 ppm at present. As a result of these increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.2 – 0.5 °C per decade. Since there is a delay between the release of emissions and their effects, it has been predicted that even if emissions were to stop today, the global mean surface temperature would continue to rise for at least 50 years.

The UK government carbon emissions target (60% decrease in carbon emissions by 2050) is based upon the key figure that, to limit the global surface temperature rise to 2 °C (generally regarded as the threshold between acceptable and dangerous climate change), atmospheric carbon dioxide levels must be stabilised at 550 ppm. However, at a recent DEFRA conference, climate change experts warned that the most recent predictions were that a level of 380-430ppmv was more realistic to maintain this 2 °C temperature increase. Since we are now at 380ppmv this would require a 90-100% decrease in UK carbon emissions by 2050! This problem is emphasised by the lack of current targets for International shipping and aviation, the two largest and most rapidly increasing energy sinks in the UK .

One of the most significant impacts of global warming is sea level rise. Houghton predicts that even if 550 ppm of atmospheric carbon dioxide is achieved, the sea level will have increased by 0.5m on average by 2010 and could continue to increase for another century. As an example of the consequences of this sea level rise it was demonstrated that, in Bangladesh alone, 10 million people currently live below the 1m contour line. It is estimated that by 2050, there could be 150 million environmental refugees, with considerable global economic impacts.

Solutions…Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

In February 2003, the UK government's Energy White Paper set the 60% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 and placed energy efficiency at the heart of UK energy policy, identifying improved energy efficiency as the most cost-effective way to meet these targets. In 2004, the document, "Energy Efficiency: The Government's Plan for Action", was published. This outlined the government's action plan for energy efficiency including measures such as energy efficiency targets for energy suppliers, grants for energy efficient measures in the home, energy efficient building regulations, investment in technological development projects and a climate change communications programme. Details of this paper and the Energy White Paper can be found on the DEFRA website.

“ Renewables offer a means of reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides associated with the power sector, even when their own life cycles are taken into account” (International Energy Agency, 1998). Types of renewable energy technologies include photovoltaic, solar thermal, wind (on-shore and off-shore turbines), hydroelectric, geothermal, biomass, energy crops, waste technologies and landfill gas combustion.

Of the 33.5TWh of electricity produced in Wales in 1999, 79 % came form carbon based sources, 18 % from nuclear and <3 % from renewable sources. The aim of the National Assembly for Wales is to make Wales a “global renewable showcase for clean energy production”. In a recent review of energy policy for Wales targets of 10% renewable energy by 2010 and 20 % renewable energy by 2020 were set. The Assembly has led the way to meeting these targets with 70 % of their electrical energy purchases coming from renewable sources in 2002, compared to the UK government's targets of 5 % by 2003.